Why execution, not market timing, will define returns this cycle

For much of the past decade, commercial real estate investing was relatively forgiving. If you bought a good asset, held it for long enough and applied a sensible level of leverage, strong returns often followed. Declining interest rates, yield compression and abundant liquidity did much of the heavy lifting.

That environment has changed. Today, returns are far less dependent on market momentum, and far more dependent on execution.

 

The end of “buy well and wait”

Over the past 10 to 15 years a significant proportion of commercial real estate returns came from external factors:

  • falling cap rates across most sectors, particularly industrial;
  • increasing investor demand; and
  • expansion in available debt.

In that environment, market timing played a meaningful role. Enter at the right point in the cycle, and a large portion of your return could be delivered without significant intervention. However, those tailwinds have largely dissipated, and relying on market appreciation alone is no longer a viable strategy.

 

Why execution now matters more than ever

In a market with stable, or even rising cap rates in some sectors, execution becomes the key driver of performance. At its core, real estate value is driven by Net Operating Income (NOI). This means that even relatively small improvements in NOI can have a disproportionate impact on asset value. For example, a $10,000 increase in NOI at a 6% cap rate implies approximately $166,000 of value creation. Rather than waiting for cap rates to compress, investors can directly influence outcomes by improving income and reducing costs.

Execution in a property investment isn’t just one thing; there are a number of activities that go into driving returns to investors:

  1. Leasing and revenue management – reducing vacancy and downtime, re-leasing at higher rents through repositioning and improving tenant quality and lease term.
  2. Capital, expense management and efficiency – targeted upgrades to lift rent and occupancy, procurement and contract optimisation through scale and national relationships.
  3. Repositioning and asset strategy – changing tenant mix, use or configuration to capture more value, disposing at the right time in the cycle.
  4. Tenant relationships – performance tracking, tenant engagement and consistent execution.
  5. Access to lenders – a wide pool of funding sources can help to reduce borrowing costs and find the right lender for the asset.

 

What this means for investors

Two similar assets can produce very different outcomes depending on how well they are managed.

An example of this can be seen at the 404 Orrong Road asset within The Westbridge Welshpool Property Fund. The asset was purchased in early 2022 for $37.5m, and a coordinated strategy of leasing outcomes, targeted capex and development has driven a material increase in income and asset value, which now stands 41.6% higher at $53.1m at 30 June 2026. This highlights how experienced management can generate value through controllable operational levers, delivering more resilient and repeatable outcomes for investors.

Bottom line

Investing in a property fund with experienced management can materially enhance returns through operational execution, not just asset selection. At Westbridge, consistent execution is something we have been deliberately focused on for a long time.

Our approach has been to:

  • prioritise income durability and tenant quality;
  • actively manage assets rather than rely on market movement;
  • apply disciplined capex and leasing strategies; and
  • maintain a strong focus on cost control and execution.

Our track record plays this out. This has contributed to our ability to navigate more volatile conditions and continue to deliver for investors, particularly in environments where valuation tailwinds are less reliable.

Alex Donkin Profile photo

Alex Donkin

Chief Financial Officer

Alex is a Chartered Accountant with extensive experience in the property and funds management sector gained from over 15 years working in London, Amsterdam and Perth. Alex is responsible for all financial accounting, taxation, treasury, financing, risk management, ICT and compliance for the Trustee, Manager and Funds. Before joining the MW Group, Alex worked in senior finance and commercial roles with major international property group Lendlease. Before this, he held senior positions with an ASX-listed international mining company and the accounting firm KPMG.