Retail’s online and AI future is a real estate story.
Coles is a clear case in point. It took nearly 20 years for online sales to reach 3% of total penetration, then only five years to climb to 14% and management is now preparing for 30% penetration by 2030. Importantly, the next phase is not just about more online shopping, it is about who is doing the shopping. AI agents are expected to play a material role, potentially placing up to 30% of online orders over time.
This will have meaningful implications for how retail and last mile logistics real estate functions.
Coles online sales penetration
Notes:
1. Robots in aisle three? Coles CEOs stunning $5b AI shopping Call, AFR 5 May 2026
2. Online sales rates referenced by AFR, Coles Annual Reports, various years
When a growing share of orders are being generated by software rather than people walking aisles, proximity to population catchments and fulfilment capability will become the critical drivers, regardless of whether it’s a supermarket, shopping centre or dedicated fulfillment facility.
Asset selection will become more important. The most valuable assets will be those that can support multiple functions at once, including:
- Proximity to dense population centres
- Efficient loading and logistics access
- Sufficient back-of-house space
- Cold storage capability
- Seamless click-and-collect integration
- Delivery-ready infrastructure
The pace of change is accelerating, while real estate decision-making, development and repositioning cycles tend to be much slower.
To outperform, investors need to focus on an asset’s adaptability today, selecting assets that have the room evolve with the way retail, logistics and technology continue to converge.
